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Episode 1139: The WAR We Want
Date November 20, 2017 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about a Shohei Otani “deadline” and Braves prospect Ronald Acuna, then bring on FanGraphs managing editor Dave Cameron to discuss a dispute about WAR and valuing players between Bill James and sabermetric stat sites, the evolution of awards (and Hall of Fame) voting, why Dave expects certain teams to dictate the way the winter unfolds, and the free agents he sees as notable bargains or busts. Topics * Dave joins the guys to talk about how WAR is calculated. * The guys reaction to Bill James critique of the WAR stat. * Dave tries to explain WAR in 20 seconds. * In the future and you can quantify with more accuracy the situation would you be okay with that being a part of WAR? * When we get more information we will have to think about the names more. * Dave's thoughts on “expected WAR”, and what the reaction might be. * Daves post on the end of season awards. * Dave and Jeffs award voting strategy. * Will the hall of fame voting start making more sense when the younger writers start getting more sway? * Why did Dave pick the Marlins, Cardinals, and Red Sox to run the offseason, why? * If Dave were the Marlins is there anyone on the Marlins he would keep if they trade Giancarlo Stanton? * Who is the biggest value and biggest landmine free agent? * What is the level Dave feels comfortable signing Jake Arietta? * The Shohei Ohtani deadline got pushed back until Tuesday. Intro * Waxahatchee, "Misery Over Dispute" Interstitial * My Morning Jacket, "War Begun" Outro * The Killers, "Deadlines and Commitments" Banter * Jeff’s back from Arizona * It’s Shohei Ohtani posting deadline day is Monday. * Has a player ever been pulled back from a posting? * Ronald Acuna was MVP of AFL with .325/.414/.629 had 7 home runs. Notes * Ronald Acuna is youngest MVP or the AFL ever at the age of 19. * Ronald Acuna is 2 years younger than previous top prospect Yoan Moncada. * Ronald Acuna played in Australia in 2016 batted .375 with a 1.001 OPS. * Bill James recently tweeted that he sees a flaw or error in WAR, because it does not take team wins into account. * Dave says WAR is a context neutral stat, unlike WPA, so it should not take team wins into account. * Bill James isn’t into the future looking things, he's more interested in the past. * No one seems to look into what happens after a player does something, only before. * “WAR represents the expected or estimated number of wins a team if that team would lose if that player were to be injured on opening day (lists injury possibilities) and had to be replaced with some generic AAA guy who wasn't a major prospect, just a guy, who played every single game, had every at bat, that the player would get over the season. Over time we would estimate that the difference between those players would be about the players WAR value, and thats how many wins that team would expect to receive.” - Dave * James seems to be placing too much emphasis on clutch. * Ben thinks the illusion of clutch only comes into play in a tie breaker. * Dave thinks Bill’s biggest hang up may be the word wins, in WAR, and thinks it may be misleading. * They all think this version of WAR is the best, but could be better. * Carlos Santana and Lorenzo Cain are guys that Dave would target this off season. * Dave thinks Eric Hosmer is the biggest landmine free agent. * Dave thinks tops for Jake Arrieta is 25 million, and 3 years. Links * https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/effectively-wild-episode-1139-the-war-we-want/ * https://www.billjamesonline.com/judge_and_altuve/ * https://www.billjamesonline.com/mvp_followup/ * https://medium.com/joeblogs/more-on-war-a95873619731 * https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/putting-war-in-context-a-response-to-bill-james/ * https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-50-free-agents/ * https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/new-effectively-wild-heat-map-t-shirts-are-here/ Category:Episodes Category:Guest Episodes